Hedging Against Technology Risks of the Accelerator System of a First-of-a-Kind Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor

Demonstrating the generation of electricity with Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor (ADSR) technology will incur substantial financial risk both from traditional reactor construction uncertainties and new technology uncertainties such as the reliability of the accelerator system. The sensitivity of the economic value of ADSRs to the reliability of the accelerator system is assessed. The economic assessment considers an ADSR with either one or two linear accelerators driving it. The extent to which a second accelerator improves reliability is determined, as are the costs for that improvement. Two Real Options derived flexible designs for the accelerator system are also considered. In one a single accelerator ADSR can be expanded to having two accelerators, in the other an accelerator is constructed and tested before the reactor is constructed. Finally, a phased multiple-reactor park with a single system of multiple integrated accelerators is suggested and discussed.